Sunny Sunday Your Answer
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A good exercise for students to figure out where in the simple answer this assumption is hidden and how it impacts on the answer.
Also good to highlight the flaws of "no info: let's use a 'flat' ground truth". Unless we have a very low opinion of weather forecasting in general the assumption the forecasts are independent is not only unjustified, it is actually implausible as both forcasts are predictions presumably based on similar info and methodology.
This is perhaps the most tricky thing to fully appreciate so be careful to well explain why there is a distinction between false positive and false negative rates and why they are often not the same.
Sign up to join this community. The best answers are voted up and rise to the top. Home Questions Tags Users Unanswered. A probably sunny Sunday Ask Question.
Asked 3 days ago. Active 2 days ago. Viewed times. So here it goes: The Random Family decided to go on a picnic next Sunday. Pspl Pspl 1, 2 2 silver badges 16 16 bronze badges.
For the accepted answer to be correct, we would have to know that the two websites' forecasts were independent. Then the approach requiring independence is definitely wrong; and the true answer definitely depends on the actual probability of sunny weather.
I fear your students are learning more bad than good from this. Please don't question my skills on teaching on such few information. I've been teaching for 22 years now, and my method works very well.
Besides, if you keep bringing "what if a time-machine However, the fact that you accepted the answer below does give me some information about the importance you place on the unspoken details.
The "time machine" is a red-herring—substitute a vague "predicts perfectly" and the mathematical critique still stands. Active Oldest Votes.
The key to figuring this out is that either both forecasts are correct, or they are both wrong. De beoordelingsscore is het gemiddelde cijfer dat kopers aan de verkoper hebben gegeven in de laatste 3 maanden.
Voorbeeld Verkoper A heeft 10 beoordelingen. Boek was in perfecte staat. Levertijd was erg lang paar weken , maar dit kan door vakantie zijn gekomen.
Er ging niets goed!!!!!!!! Tot het laatste moment bleek dat zij ze niet konden leveren!!!! Goed verpakt en snelle levering.
Aflevering door DHL. Zij melden dat eea 30 juni is afgeleverd en dit is niet het geval geweest. Ik krijg hierop, omdat dit de afspraak was, vanuit jullie een betalingsverzoek.
Via doorlink DHL bleek pakket nog te worden gesorteerd. Inmiddels is het boek in goede orde ontvangen. Heb pakje nooit gekregen Wel betaald!!
Pregnancy is an odd thing. We had flying ant day yesterday too. I saw the seagulls earlier and said to my husband it might be flying ant day but it felt a bit early in the year, but I was right.
Or the loud music that accompanies or all the laughing nothing is THAT funny. What a moaning minnie I am! It is a bit early for flying ant day, Alison.
You are not a moaning minnie. I doubt it. Ye gods, a hot tub! You might as well take a bath in front of your neighbours.
And all the noise at that late hour, too. Some people really are inconsiderate. Now I like the smell of barbecue but not the tastes, well, it takes all sorts.
He does make the whole Meal so that I can loll on the screened porch and wait to eat. I felt like a great Earth Mother and when, two years later, I became pregnant again I bounced happily along never thinking of morning sickness.
Well, no morning sickness but every late afternoon it hit me like a jack hammer. For three and a half months all I wanted to eat was bread and butter.
I baked, I ate, I threw up. It was horrible. My really primitive Lithuanian grandmother assured me that it was the sign of a small, hairy, daughter!
She was quite right. Felicity was born so covered in hair that she looked like a tiny chimpanzee. Her older brother, John, regarded her with horror and asked what she was!
I have not mentioned my first child and seldom do, but we are all friends here. He went into the US Navy but was killed by a drunken driver when he was 22 years old, in We have always been glad that he was with us that long and with passing time it is the happy times that stay in the memory..
First of all, Erika, I was so sorry to hear of the death of your son when he was 22, but thank you so much for telling us about this.
You are right we are all friends together here. Instead of morning sickness you suffered from evening sickness, but the sickness is still pretty awful.
I was sick throughout the whole nine months of both pregnancies, I lost weight so that some neighbours, I am sure, think mine was a phantom pregnancy!
So sorry to read about your son, Erika. I think it is lovely that Margaret has created a place here where we can share with friends.
Thank you, also, Lynn, for your kind words to Erika. I am delighted that we feel we can talk to each other here.
Thank goodness that you have had some cooler weather. Your email address will not be published. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.
They usually emerge about 4pm when the air is warm and dry, but while they were emerging, seagulls were gathering, rather like storm clouds overhead … … awaiting their feast … It was difficult photographing the gulls, as the sun was bright in a cloudless sky, and of course, they were flying at great speed, gorging on the ants.
Until next time. She writes about the things she enjoys: flowers, scent, fine soap, monthly style magazines, and other such small indulgences, such as afternoon tea or simply enjoying her summerhouse with a book.
She invites you to enjoy this virtual visit to South Devon, England. Previous A July Saturday. Next Call This Summer? Margaret July 12, at pm.
Lynn July 12, at pm. Helen July 13, at pm. Margaret July 13, at pm. Susan July 12, at pm. Karen Elise Sorensen July 13, at pm.
Sue July 13, at am. Erika July 13, at am. Julia in Canada July 13, at am.